lex-hypothesis-testing

Bayesian hypothesis management for LegionIO agents. Part of the LegionIO cognitive architecture extension ecosystem (LEX).

lex-hypothesis-testing gives an agent a formal system for proposing beliefs about the world and updating them with evidence. Hypotheses start at a default prior (0.5), accumulate supporting or disconfirming evidence via Bayesian-style posterior updates, and are automatically confirmed or disconfirmed when their posterior crosses a threshold. Competing hypotheses in the same domain can be surfaced to detect belief conflicts.

Key capabilities:

• Bayesian posterior updates: evidence steps raise or lower the posterior by evidence_strength * 0.1
• Auto-confirmation: posterior >= 0.8 confirms; posterior <= 0.2 disconfirms
• Competing hypothesis detection: find active hypotheses in the same domain
• Confidence labels: very_low / low / moderate / high / very_high per posterior range
• Confirmation rate: metacognitive signal tracking prediction reliability over time

Add to your Gemfile:

gem 'lex-hypothesis-testing'

Or install directly:

gem install lex-hypothesis-testing

require 'legion/extensions/hypothesis_testing'

client = Legion::Extensions::HypothesisTesting::Client.new

# Propose a hypothesis
result = client.propose_hypothesis(
  content: 'The API latency spike is caused by connection pool exhaustion',
  domain: :performance
)
hypothesis_id = result[:hypothesis][:id]

# Add evidence
client.test_hypothesis(id: hypothesis_id, evidence_strength: 0.9, supporting: true)
# After enough supporting evidence, automatically confirmed

# Compete hypotheses in the same domain
client.competing_hypotheses(domain: :performance)

# Top hypotheses by confidence
client.most_confident_hypotheses(limit: 5)

# Summary
client.hypothesis_report

bundle install
bundle exec rspec
bundle exec rubocop

MIT